Internal clustering validity indices (ICVIs) assess clustering quality without ground truth labels. Comparative studies consistently find that no single ICVI outperforms others across datasets, leaving practitioners without principled ICVI selection. We argue that inconsistent ICVI performance arises because studies evaluate them based on matching human labels rather than measuring the quality of the discovered structure in the data, using datasets without formally quantifying the structure type and quality. Structure type refers to the mathematical organisation in data that clustering aims to discover. Validity theory requires a theoretical definition of clustering quality, which depends on structure type. We demonstrate this through the first validity assessment of clustering quality measures for correlation patterns, a structure type that arises from clustering time series by correlation relationships. We formalise 23 canonical correlation patterns as the theoretical optimal clustering and use synthetic data modelling this structure with controlled perturbations to evaluate validity across content, criterion, construct, and external validity. Our findings show that Silhouette Width Criterion (SWC) and Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI) are valid for correlation patterns, whilst Calinski-Harabasz (VRC) and Pakhira-Bandyopadhyay-Maulik (PBM) indices fail. Simple Lp norm distances achieve validity, whilst correlation-specific functions fail structural, criterion, and external validity. These results differ from previous studies where VRC and PBM performed well, demonstrating that validity depends on structure type. Our structure-type-specific validation method provides both practical guidance (quality thresholds SWC>0.9, DBI<0.15) and a methodological template for establishing validity for other structure types.

Ensembling in deep learning improves accuracy and calibration over single networks. The traditional aggregation approach, ensemble averaging, treats all individual networks equally by averaging their outputs. Inspired by crowdsourcing we propose an aggregation method called soft Dawid Skene for deep ensembles that estimates confusion matrices of ensemble members and weighs them according to their inferred performance. Soft Dawid Skene aggregates soft labels in contrast to hard labels often used in crowdsourcing. We empirically show the superiority of soft Dawid Skene in accuracy, calibration and out of distribution detection in comparison to ensemble averaging in extensive experiments.

Digital Pathology is a cornerstone in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. A key task in this field is the identification and segmentation of cells in hematoxylin and eosin-stained images. Existing methods for cell segmentation often require extensive annotated datasets for training and are limited to a predefined cell classification scheme. To overcome these limitations, we propose $\text{CellViT}^{{\scriptscriptstyle ++}}$, a framework for generalized cell segmentation in digital pathology. $\text{CellViT}^{{\scriptscriptstyle ++}}$ utilizes Vision Transformers with foundation models as encoders to compute deep cell features and segmentation masks simultaneously. To adapt to unseen cell types, we rely on a computationally efficient approach. It requires minimal data for training and leads to a drastically reduced carbon footprint. We demonstrate excellent performance on seven different datasets, covering a broad spectrum of cell types, organs, and clinical settings. The framework achieves remarkable zero-shot segmentation and data-efficient cell-type classification. Furthermore, we show that $\text{CellViT}^{{\scriptscriptstyle ++}}$ can leverage immunofluorescence stainings to generate training datasets without the need for pathologist annotations. The automated dataset generation approach surpasses the performance of networks trained on manually labeled data, demonstrating its effectiveness in creating high-quality training datasets without expert annotations. To advance digital pathology, $\text{CellViT}^{{\scriptscriptstyle ++}}$ is available as an open-source framework featuring a user-friendly, web-based interface for visualization and annotation. The code is available under https://github.com/TIO-IKIM/CellViT-plus-plus.

Artificial intelligence has, so far, largely automated routine tasks, but what does it mean for the future of work if Large Language Models (LLMs) show creativity comparable to humans? To measure the creativity of LLMs holistically, the current study uses 13 creative tasks spanning three domains. We benchmark the LLMs against individual humans, and also take a novel approach by comparing them to the collective creativity of groups of humans. We find that the best LLMs (Claude and GPT-4) rank in the 52nd percentile against humans, and overall LLMs excel in divergent thinking and problem solving but lag in creative writing. When questioned 10 times, an LLM's collective creativity is equivalent to 8-10 humans. When more responses are requested, two additional responses of LLMs equal one extra human. Ultimately, LLMs, when optimally applied, may compete with a small group of humans in the future of work.

Active Learning (AL) allows models to learn interactively from user feedback. This paper introduces a counterfactual data augmentation approach to AL, particularly addressing the selection of datapoints for user querying, a pivotal concern in enhancing data efficiency. Our approach is inspired by Variation Theory, a theory of human concept learning that emphasizes the essential features of a concept by focusing on what stays the same and what changes. Instead of just querying with existing datapoints, our approach synthesizes artificial datapoints that highlight potential key similarities and differences among labels using a neuro-symbolic pipeline combining large language models (LLMs) and rule-based models. Through an experiment in the example domain of text classification, we show that our approach achieves significantly higher performance when there are fewer annotated data. As the annotated training data gets larger the impact of the generated data starts to diminish showing its capability to address the cold start problem in AL. This research sheds light on integrating theories of human learning into the optimization of AL.

The analysis of data stored in multiple sites has become more popular, raising new concerns about the security of data storage and communication. Federated learning, which does not require centralizing data, is a common approach to preventing heavy data transportation, securing valued data, and protecting personal information protection. Therefore, determining how to aggregate the information obtained from the analysis of data in separate local sites has become an important statistical issue. The commonly used averaging methods may not be suitable due to data nonhomogeneity and incomparable results among individual sites, and applying them may result in the loss of information obtained from the individual analyses. Using a sequential method in federated learning with distributed computing can facilitate the integration and accelerate the analysis process. We develop a data-driven method for efficiently and effectively aggregating valued information by analyzing local data without encountering potential issues such as information security and heavy transportation due to data communication. In addition, the proposed method can preserve the properties of classical sequential adaptive design, such as data-driven sample size and estimation precision when applied to generalized linear models. We use numerical studies of simulated data and an application to COVID-19 data collected from 32 hospitals in Mexico, to illustrate the proposed method.

Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as hurricanes and pandemics. However, it is challenging to automatically detect and learn to use extreme events and anomalies for large-scale datasets, which often require manual effort. Hence, we propose an anomaly-aware forecast framework that leverages the previously seen effects of anomalies to improve its prediction accuracy during and after the presence of extreme events. Specifically, the framework automatically extracts anomalies and incorporates them through an attention mechanism to increase its accuracy for future extreme events. Moreover, the framework employs a dynamic uncertainty optimization algorithm that reduces the uncertainty of forecasts in an online manner. The proposed framework demonstrated consistent superior accuracy with less uncertainty on three datasets with different varieties of anomalies over the current prediction models.

To enable an ethical and legal use of machine learning algorithms, they must both be fair and protect the privacy of those whose data are being used. However, implementing privacy and fairness constraints might come at the cost of utility (Jayaraman & Evans, 2019; Gong et al., 2020). This paper investigates the privacy-utility-fairness trade-off in neural networks by comparing a Simple (S-NN), a Fair (F-NN), a Differentially Private (DP-NN), and a Differentially Private and Fair Neural Network (DPF-NN) to evaluate differences in performance on metrics for privacy (epsilon, delta), fairness (risk difference), and utility (accuracy). In the scenario with the highest considered privacy guarantees (epsilon = 0.1, delta = 0.00001), the DPF-NN was found to achieve better risk difference than all the other neural networks with only a marginally lower accuracy than the S-NN and DP-NN. This model is considered fair as it achieved a risk difference below the strict (0.05) and lenient (0.1) thresholds. However, while the accuracy of the proposed model improved on previous work from Xu, Yuan and Wu (2019), the risk difference was found to be worse.